2015 was a mediocre year for the U.S. stock market indexes as a strong U.S. Dollar hurt earnings of multi-nationals. The entire market also wavered under the prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and China's devaluation of its currency in August. The total return of the S&P 500 Index was just 1.38%.
As I have previously mentioned, Standard
& Poor's introduced its first stock market index in 1923 and
created the
S&P 500 Index in 1957. The charts below (click on individual
charts for a larger view) show annual total returns for the S&P
500 Index (and its predecessor S&P 90 Index) between 1926 and
2015. The annualized return for the S&P 500
Index (and its predecessor S&P 90 Index) between 1926 and 2015
was about 10.02%. The 5-year annualized return through the end of 2015
was about 12.57%. The 10-year annualized return through 2015 was
about 7.30%.
According to the
Wall Street Journal, as of January 8, 2015, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index based on
estimated earnings over the next 12 months is approximately 15.75. As I have previously discussed, the
average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index and other large caps
stocks has been around 16 based on data dating back to the 1800s,
so the S&P 500 Index appears to be slightly undervalued relative to
its historical average P/E ratio.
Friday, January 08, 2016
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4 comments:
Thanks for the quick update this year, Jim! Looks like dividends kept us in the black for 2015.
Wow! Outstanding work Jim. This is really neat data to study. Thanks for all of your hard work! I understand that the S&P 500 returns include dividends and they include the S&P 90 until 1957. What is your source for the annual returns each year?
Thanks again!! - Jeff
Wow! Outstanding work Jim. This is really neat data to study. Thanks for all of your hard work! I understand that the S&P 500 returns include dividends and they include the S&P 90 until 1957. What is your source for the annual returns each year?
Thanks again!! - Jeff
Thanks for your work every year!!!
Christoph D. from Germany
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